Corridor weekly: 12 October 2026
This week across the Abidjan–Lagos corridor: weather signals in 5 of 5 markets, 2 of 8 ports outside their seasonal range and the latest World Bank benchmark prices, each with its source and date.
Generated from the public-source data ATI publishes on Supply Chain and Market Intelligence, and reviewed by the ATI team before publication. Every figure names its source and date.
Editor's note: Lekki's +100% is not a surge. The port only began regular operations in 2023, so its 2021–2025 comparison includes two years with almost no ship calls. Against the same weeks of 2025, calls were about the same.
This week at a glance
- Weather: 25 of 42 monitored regions on Watch or Alert, across 5 of 5 markets.
- Ports: 2 of 8 ports outside their seasonal range.
- Benchmark prices: World Bank monthly averages for September 2026.
- Strongest signals: Cross River (Nigeria) rainfall +172.6% against its baseline; Lekki port vessel calls +100% against the seasonal baseline.
- Cashew: latest reviewed offer $1,560–$1,580 per tonne, for 1–14 June 2026.
- Regional news: no reporting passed ATI's relevance screen in the last 7 days.
Weather across the corridor
NASA POWER rainfall over the trailing 30 days to 10 Oct 2026, compared with ATI's 2014–2023 same-window baseline. NORMAL, WATCH and ALERT are ATI screening tiers. The result is not a farm measurement or a yield, production or price forecast.
| Market | Regions on Watch or Alert | Largest rainfall anomaly |
|---|---|---|
| Côte d’Ivoire | 8 of 11 | Tchologo, +107.4% (Alert) |
| Ghana | 8 of 9 | Northern, +44.5% (Alert) |
| Togo | 3 of 4 | Centrale, +49.9% (Alert) |
| Benin | 2 of 6 | Donga, +29.1% (Alert) |
| Nigeria | 4 of 12 | Cross River, +172.6% (Alert) |
Ports
IMF PortWatch vessel calls over the last 30 days to 2 Oct 2026, compared with the 2021–2025 same-period baseline. This is not a congestion measurement.
| Port | Vessel calls vs baseline | Tier |
|---|---|---|
| Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire) | +22% | Normal |
| San Pedro (Côte d’Ivoire) | −1% | Normal |
| Tema (Ghana) | +12% | Normal |
| Takoradi (Ghana) | +25% | Watch |
| Lomé (Togo) | −3% | Normal |
| Cotonou (Benin) | −8% | Normal |
| Lagos (Nigeria) | −6% | Normal |
| Lekki (Nigeria) | +100% | Alert |
- Takoradi vessel calls are above the seasonal baseline (+25%). This can reflect a cargo surge or post-disruption catch-up and may increase operating pressure.
- Lekki vessel calls are unusually high (+100%). Verify whether this reflects a major cargo surge, catch-up activity, or a data anomaly.
Prices
World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet): monthly averages in nominal US dollars for September 2026. An international benchmark is not a local buyer offer.
| Benchmark | Monthly average | Change on previous month |
|---|---|---|
| Cocoa | $5.92/kg | −0.5% |
| Soybeans | $524.0/mt | +8.7% |
| Gold | $4,319/oz | −2.1% |
| Palm oil | $1,180/mt | +4.2% |
| Cotton · A Index | $2.10/kg | −0.5% |
| Natural rubber · TSR20 | $2.41/kg | +7.6% |
| Natural rubber · RSS3 | $2.75/kg | +0.7% |
Raw cashew nuts. The latest reviewed offer for Ghana raw cashew nuts is $1,560–$1,580 per tonne, CFR India / Vietnam, 46–48 lb outturn, for 1–14 June 2026, from AfriCashewSplits Week 23–24 Market Report 2026. It is a dated offered-price range, not a live quote; ATI publishes a new one only after reviewing the next bulletin.
Regional news signals
No regional reporting passed ATI's relevance screen in the last 7 days (3 candidate articles screened). The screen is strict on purpose: a week with nothing relevant is a real result.
Data freshness
Not every source was fresh when this brief was generated:
- ACA bulletin index: stale, latest observation 26 Jun 2026.
- ACA RCN CFR bulletin history: review overdue, latest observation 26 Jun 2026.
Unavailable data does not mean normal conditions. For methods and limits, see regional evidence and coverage, port and border history and source freshness.